Real Betis: beating Feyenoord puts them close to European progress

Real Betis has its first big European test against Feyenoord: if they win next Wednesday at La Cartuja, they reach nine points and, with five matchdays left, end with more than half the chances of finishing inside the top 24 of the Champions League, according to Football Meets Data (FMD).

FMD’s model says nine points translates to a 52% qualification rate, which can swing due to goal difference and other results. With 12 points, the probability rises to 100% for a top-24 place.

The projection after the second round places Betis ninth with 15 points and a +2 goal difference. In that scenario, direct qualification for the round of 16 is close but not guaranteed. The main target to land in the top eight is 16 points—an 81.5% average chance—while 15 drops to 35.3% and 14 to 6.9%.

Recent seasons back that threshold: in 2024/25, Aston Villa finished eighth with 16 and Club Brugge secured the final access spot with 11. In 2025/26, the cut for the top eight was again 16, and Benfica still made the top 24 with nine.

After Feyenoord, Betis travel to Borussia Dortmund with the chance to reach 12 points and virtually secure the next phase. The remaining fixtures are Slovan Bratislava, Como, Arsenal and Bayern.