xG shows which Premier League teams are over- or under-performing

BBC Sport uses expected goals (xG) to judge how teams are performing beyond the scoreboard. The outlet stresses that it’s still early—small sample sizes and different schedules can skew perception—but argues the underlying numbers offer a clearer hint of how a season might unfold.

Overperformers in xG

Arsenal, despite suffering their biggest defeat in three years last weekend at Brighton, are still the best side overall based on xG difference. Manchester City are close behind in terms of how much they’ve dominated games. Brentford also stand out for an impressive start that BBC Sport says doesn’t look particularly fortunate.

Manchester United, in contrast, have tended to swing between feast and famine. Even with a disappointing start, the report notes that only a few teams have a higher xG difference so far.

Underwhelming xG profiles

At the other end, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Newcastle are described as the least impressive in overall performance. Newcastle, in particular, have scored far more than their historical chance quality would normally suggest—9 goals from 4.5 xG—so manager Matthias Jaissle will likely want more consistent chance creation rather than leaning on sharp finishing.

Attack, defence and what to watch

Going forward, Brighton are highlighted as having the best attack so far by chance volume and quality, and they’ve also been ruthless in front of goal (15 non-penalty goals from 10.7 xG). Defensively, Arsenal still retain the league’s best backline even after that heavy loss.

BBC Sport’s overall takeaway: it’s too soon for firm conclusions, but the underlying xG picture suggests several teams have room to improve—while promoted sides Hull City and Ipswich appear ready to compete.